Saltwater Challenge Prognostics

What is a Prognostic?

Prognostics are a calculation of race results as a percentage of efficiency when measured against a World Best time (for National Team boats, or Open divisions) or a Time Standard (for all other Categories such as Masters and Schools). The Time Standards are based on an Australian Standard not World’s best time. For this reason we can not directly compare World best prognostics (open races) to Australian Standards (masters). 

Why Prognostics?

ERC has for several years been using prognostics to determine our master’s handicaps at the SWC regatta. This is due to a general belief that the results are fairer for competitors and allow crews to compare their own performance, not only against other crews, but also against themselves - from year to year and between regattas.

Why is it fairer?

Because a lot of actual data has gone into calculating the time standards of each boat class. It is not an estimated time but based on real rowing results. This figure is based on meters per second and can be easily adjusted to reflect different race distances.

The main advantage of using a system like this is that the distance and conditions that affect the time of the race are taken into account in the calculation automatically and apply to every boat in the race. 

Example: if a coxed four had a handicap of 10 seconds from a coxless boat for a 4500m race in calm conditions and on the day a strong wind was blowing and the race took an extra 2 mins, the handicap should be altered to account for that but often would not have been when a set handicap is applied.

Stuart Wilson from Sykes has provided us with valuable advice over the years to ensure we get this right.

How are the Prognostics Calculated?

We take your overall time (converted into seconds), and divide it by the distance of the course to calculate your metres per second. We then compare your metres per second by the standard metres per second (listed above) to get your prognostic percentage. 

 What are the Figures?

These are the prognostic meters per second figures used for SWC masters boat classes. 

This information is also available from the RV website. 

 Male Masters

 Time Standard m/sec

 Female Masters

 Time Standard m/sec

Mixed Masters 

Time Standard m/sec 

 MMA4x

 5.651

 FMA4x

 4.973

 MIXA4x

 5.312

 MMA4x+

 5.473

 FMA4x+

 4.816

 MIXA4x+

 5.145

 MMB4x

 5.567

 FMB4x

 4.899

 MIXB4x

 5.233

 MMB4x+

 5.392

 FMB4x+

 4.745

 MIXB4x+

 5.068

 MMC4x

 5.451

 FMC4x

 4.797

 MIXC4x

 5.124

 MMC4x+

 5.279

 FMC4x+

 4.645

 MIXC4x+

 4.962

 MMD4x

 5.330

 FMD4x

 4.691

 MIXD4x

 5.010

 MMD4x+

 5.162

 FMD4x+

 4.542

 MIXD4x+

 4.852

 MME4x

 5.236

 FME4x

 4.608

 MIXE4x

 4.922

 MME4x+

 5.071

 FME4x+

 4.462

 MIXE4x+

 4.767

 MMF4x

 5.106

 FMF4x

 4.493

 MIXF4x

 4.799

 MMF4x+

 4.945

 FMF4x+

 4.351

 MIXF4x+

 4.648

 MMG4x

 4.950

 FMG4x

 4.356

 MIXG4x

 4.653

 MMG4x+

 4.793

 FMG4x+

 4.218

 MIXG4x+

 4.506

 MMH4x

 4.652

 FMH4x

 4.094

 MIXH4x

 4.090

 MMH4x+

 4.505

 FMH4x+

 3.965

 MIXH4x+

 3.960

 MMI4x

 4.351

 FMI4x

 3.829

 

 

 MMI4x+

 4.213

 FMI4x+

 3.708

 

 

 MMJ4x

 4.069

 FMJ4x

 3.580

 

 

 MMJ4x+

 3.940

 FMJ4x+

 3.467

 

 

48 The Boulevard, Moonee Ponds 3039  | Phone: (03) 9370 1973

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